Market Insights - November 18th, 2019

When will the next down happen in the stock market? 


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Episode 006 – November 18th 2019

Rick:                 Good morning. Welcome to the week in review for November 18th 2019. Joining me is Bart Schannep, the cofounder and president of Southwest investments. Good morning Bart.


Bart:                 Good morning Rick. How are you?


Rick:                 Excellent, excellent. The holiday season has begun. You’re starting to attend parties. Is that right?


Bart:                 Yes, I am. I will tell you that frequently at cocktail parties, conversation does wrap around what each of us do for a living. Once I let out that I’m in investments, then people frequently ask me about the economy, or more specifically, “When is the next recession coming?”

I’ve got to be honest. I don’t know when. The stock market is so strong. We recently this last week hit all new record highs on the three major indexes. To predict when the market’s going to go down is a very tough game. What do people consider down?

Just a couple of statistics from Capital Research and Management. The stock market goes down, on average, at least five percent a year, three times a year. The stock market goes down 10 percent about once a year. The stock market goes down 15 percent about once every two years and down 20 percent about once every three and a half years.

So many people are talking about this bull market is now 10 years old. Well, maybe. We did a year ago, the fourth quarter of 2018, we saw the markets go down 18 to 20 percent. That could have counted as a reset of the bull market. Specifically though, when it comes to the recession, the couple things I need to point out.

Now, we talked last week about how employment is now at record highs. Well, in the U.S., consumer spending makes up 70 percent of our economy. If we have a record number of people working, they’re going to be spending money on things.

The other thing, Rick, that really points out is there’s always a lag time on recessions. I mean, the most recent recessions, the one 10 years ago, the one we refer to as the great recession, it wasn’t declared until the recession had already been rolling for 11 months. They were 11 months late announcing when it began. Then they were 15 months late telling us when it had finished.


Rick:                 What you’re saying is that it may have already begun, but it may already be over before we knew it begun. Is that right?


Bart:                 That’s about right.


Rick:                 Alright. Well, thank you Bart. I appreciate your time today. Thank you for joining us. Remember to like us on Facebook and Twitter where we have miscellaneous posts throughout the week. We look forward to seeing you next week.


Sarah has been working at Southwest Investment Advisors since October of 2017.

Hers is the first friendly face you will encounter when visiting the office.

Sarah’s responsibilities include assisting clients with online access, processing account documents, scheduling meetings and assisting in all aspects of client services.

When she is not working here you may find Sarah on the shooting range serving as an assistant instructor and safety coach.

She has two children, son Zach is a graduate of the University of Arizona and daughter Paige who will graduate in 2019.


Kataya has been with Southwest Investment Advisors since January of 2017.

She assists Alix with portfolio construction, rebalancing, and trading.

Kataya also plans our company’s client appreciation events and assists with the company website.

In her free time Kataya enjoys spending time with her family and her dog, traveling to new places, and getting involved with local events.


Lacey has been with Southwest Investment Advisors since 2007 and has been the Operations Manager since 2012.

Her primary duties are assisting clients, assisting Advisors, processing paperwork, and working with our back office at LPL Financial.

When she’s not working she enjoys riding horses and spending time with her husband, Dustin, her two small children, and her dogs, Tebow and Ellie.

Lacey and her family really enjoy traveling, spending time outdoors, and watching her dad, Robert Wright, play the banjo.


Robert has been an Advisor since 2012 following in the footsteps of both his father and grandfather. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in English Literature and graduated Summa cum Laude from BIOLA. After working several years in Social Services Robert has a distinct perspective when helping people create and manage their financial goals.

When Robert is not working, life is all about family. Along with his lovely wife, Robin, four beautiful children and their dog, he enjoys traveling in the family bus, which is always an adventure. He enjoys meditating, praying, journaling and plays the guitar daily to maintain his sanity!

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Licensing and Regulatory​:

Licenses: Series 7, Series 63, Series 31 held through LPL Financial and the Series 66 is held through LPL Financial and Southwest Investment Advisors


Rob is an original co-founder, has been in the industry since 1994. He has degrees in English and Liberal Studies as well as a Teaching Certificate from California State San Bernardino.

Before becoming a Financial Advisor, Rob was a member of the New Christy Minstrels and he continues to perform with his banjos and other stringed instruments in concert as a member of the Wildcat Jazz Band throughout North America and as a guest artist with local symphonies and at various music festivals. Rob and his wife, Linda have one daughter and two grandchildren.

Rob has since retired and no longer has duties at Southwest Investment Advisors, Inc.


Original co-founder, Bart has worked as an Investment Advisor since 1983.  He was with Dean Witter/Morgan Stanley for fifteen years, serving as Branch Manager during the final four years, before moving to Piper Jaffray as Branch Manager for an additional three-and-a-half years before co-founding Southwest Investment Advisors.

In 2008, Bart become one of the first 200 professionals obtaining the industry’s newest designation, the Certified Wealth Strategist® designation, and administered by Cannon Financial Institute.

In May, 2010 Bart was selected for the distinction of Outstanding Advisor of the Year by Registered Rep Magazine, one of 10 financial advisors selected by the editors for 2010. From hundreds of nominees, the winning advisors have demonstrated both business success and leadership in serving as guides to other financial advisors and as active participants in community activities.

He is active in his church and served as President of the Board for Gospel Rescue Mission of Tucson from 2007 – 2010 and 2015 – 2018.  Bart also has served on the Board of Adjustments for the town of Oro Valley from 2002 – 2008.  Bart and his wife Marcella have three grown children and several grandchildren. Together they enjoy wine tasting, scuba diving, and travel.

Bart has since retired and has no responsibilities at Southwest Investment Advisors, Inc.


Rick is in charge of the managerial duties at Southwest Investment Advisors.  As a Financial Advisor, he meets with new and existing clients and helps with problem solving.

He has a Bachelors of Science in Business and Marketing from Purdue University and an MBA from the University of Phoenix. His past 20 years of business experience includes roles of Controller, CFO, and President of consumer goods companies with double digit growth for over a decade.  He and his wife own a local jewelry boutique, Trinity Diamonds.

Outside of the office, Rick enjoys keeping up with the latest in tech news, scuba diving, hiking, playing the electric bass guitar (well, trying to), and keeping the dogs happy with long walks.

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Alix’s primary roles in the team are portfolio management and client contact. She focuses on building and maintaining client relationships and reviewing and constructing portfolios that reflect clients’ individual goals.

Alix holds a BS in Business Administration from Pepperdine University, where she studied both in Malibu, California and Florence, Italy. She started with Southwest Investments in 2009 on the operational side of the business and has built her way to the sales side.

In 2014 Alix obtained one of the industry’s newest designations, the Certified Wealth Strategist® designation, administered by Cannon Financial Institute.

When she’s not in the office, Alix enjoys traveling and exercising with her husband Phil, singing at the Vineyard Christian Community, and meeting up for tea or a cold brew. She has a wonderful family and close group of friends and is excited to be a part of the team here at Southwest Investment Advisors.

Meet with Alix: