Submitted by Southwest Investment Advisors on February 16th, 2018
27 Bull Markets this Century
What signals the beginning of a Bull Market? When markets rise 19% above the market lows; that is the threshold from which advances have then risen 93% of the time to over +29%. One-half have risen over 80%, with the average Bull market gain being 111%, and lasting nearly 3 years. 100% of Bull Markets in the 20th Century have been accompanied by or followed shortly thereafter (4.4 months on average) by economic expansions.
Dates of Bull Markets: 1900, 1903-06, 1907-09, 1911, 1914-16, 1917-19, 1921-23, 1923-9, 1932-7, 1938, 1942-6, 1949-56, 1957-61, 1962-66, 1966-68, 1970-73, 1974-76, 1978, 1980-81, 1982-7, 1987-90, 1990-8, 1998-2000, 2001, 2002-7, 2008-09, 2009-11
You can see the shortest and longest Bull markets were 1.4 and 93.2 months respectively. The least gain was 19.6% and the most 371.6%. The median of all 27 complete Bull markets was a 74.1% gain and lasted 25.4 months. This gives you a historic perspective of where any particular Bull market stands in relation to others, and where a current Bull market’s status might be. Bull (or Bear) markets can end at any point but the quartiles show the “odds” of when they might end.
This report is prepared for general circulation and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or service. Market prices and other data may be obtained from outside sources and is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.